Canadian home sales edge up in August

 

Ottawa, ON, September 15, 2017 – According to statistics[1] released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Association (CREA), national home sales posted a small gain in August 2017.

HIGHLIGHTS:

  • National home sales rose 1.3% from July to August.
  • Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity stood 9.9% below last August’s level.
  • The number of newly listed homes fell a further 3.9% from July to August.
  • The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was up 11.2% year-over-year (y-o-y) in August 2017.
  • The national average sale price climbed by 3.6% y-o-y in August.

There was a roughly even split between the number of local markets where sales posted a monthly increase and those where activity declined. The monthly rebound in Greater Toronto Area (GTA) (14.3% month-over-month) sales fueled the national increase. For Canada net of the GTA, sales activity was flat. While it was the first monthly increase in activity since Ontario’s Fair Housing Policy was announced, GTA sales activity remained well down compared to the peak reached in March (-36%) and year-ago levels (-32%).

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was down 9.9% on a y-o-y basis in August 2017. Sales were down from year-ago levels in about 60% of all local markets, led by the GTA and nearby housing markets.

“Experience shows that home buyers watch mortgage rates carefully and that recent interest rate increases will prompt some to make an offer before rates move higher, while moving others to the sidelines,” said CREA President Andrew Peck. “All real estate is local, and REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to.”

“Time will tell whether the monthly rise in August sales activity marks the beginning of a rebound, particularly in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region and other higher-priced urban centres,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “The picture will become clearer once mortgages that were pre-approved prior to recent interest rate hikes expire.”

The number of newly listed homes slid a further 3.9% in August, marking a third consecutive monthly decline. The national result largely reflects a reduction in newly listed homes in the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, London-St. Thomas and Kitchener-Waterloo, as well as the Fraser Valley.

With sales up and new listings down in August, the national sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 57% compared to 54.1% in July. A national sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40% and 60% is generally consistent with balanced national housing market, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

That said, the rule of thumb varies according to local market level. Considering the degree and duration to which current market balance in each local market is above or below its long-term average is a more sophisticated way of gauging whether local conditions favour buyers or sellers. (Market balance measures that are within one standard deviation of the long-term average are generally consistent with balanced market conditions).

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with its long-term average, some 70% of all local markets were in balanced market territory in August 2017, up from 63% the previous month. A decline in new listings has firmed market balance in a number of Greater Golden Horseshoe housing markets where it had recently begun tilting toward buyers’ market territory.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents how long it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 5 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of August 2017, down from 5.1 in July and slightly below the long-term average of 5.2 months.

Chart A

CHART A

At 2.3 months of inventory, the Greater Golden Horseshoe region is up sharply from the all-time low of 0.8 months reached in February and March just before the Ontario government announced housing policy changes in April. However, it remains well below the long-term average of 3.1 months. (Chart A)

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 11.2% y-o-y in August 2017, representing a further deceleration in y-o-y gains since April. The deceleration in price gains largely reflects softening price trends in Greater Golden Horseshoe housing markets tracked by the index. (Chart B)

Chart B

CHART B

Price gains diminished in all benchmark categories, led by two-storey single family homes. Apartment units posted the largest y-o-y gains in August (+19.5%), followed by townhouse/row units (+14.4%), two-storey single family homes (+8.3%), and one-storey single family homes (+8.1%).

While benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in 12 of 13 housing markets tracked by the MLS® HPI, price trends continued to vary widely by region.

After having dipped in the second half of last year, benchmark home prices in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia have recovered and are now at new highs (Greater Vancouver: +9.4% y-o-y; Fraser Valley: +14.8% y-o-y).

Benchmark home price increases have slowed to about 16% on a y-o-y basis in Victoria, and are still running at about 20% elsewhere on Vancouver Island.

Price gains slowed further on a y-o-y basis in Greater Toronto, Oakville-Milton and Guelph; however, prices in those markets remain well above year-ago levels (Greater Toronto: +14.3% y-o-y; Oakville-Milton: +11.4% y-o-y; Guelph: +19.5% y-o-y).

Calgary benchmark price growth remained in positive territory on a y-o-y basis in August (+0.8%). While Regina home prices popped back above year-ago levels (+5.6% y-o-y), Saskatoon home prices remain down (-0.3% y-o-y). That said, prices of late have been trending higher in both Regina and Saskatoon and if recent trends hold, Saskatoon prices will also turn positive on a y-o-y basis before year-end.

Benchmark home price growth accelerated in Ottawa (+5.9% y-o-y overall, led by a 7% increase in one-storey single family home prices) and was up in Greater Montreal (+4.6% y-o-y overall, led by a 7.1% increase in prices for townhouse/row units). Prices were up 5.1% overall in Greater Moncton, led by a 7.9% y-o-y gain in townhouse/row prices. (Table 1)

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are prone to being strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in August 2017 was $472,247, up 3.6% from where it stood one year earlier. The national average price is heavily skewed by sales in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, two of Canada’s most active and expensive markets. Excluding these two markets from calculations trims almost $100,000 from the national average price ($373,859).

MLS® Home Price Index Benchmark Price
Composite HPI August 2017 Percentage Change vs.
1 month ago 3 months ago 6 months ago 12 months ago 3 years ago 5 years ago
Aggregate $602,400 -0.77 -2.33 5.63 11.23 35.95 47.32
Lower Mainland $929,700 1.12 5.68 13.26 10.91 63.63 68.46
Greater Vancouver $1,029,700 1.01 4.95 12.31 9.43 61.58 67.94
Fraser Valley $740,400 1.38 7.32 15.58 14.78 69.59 70.75
Vancouver Island $433,900 0.76 5.82 13.93 20.31 44.30 43.43
Victoria $620,700 -0.15 2.97 9.99 16.30 45.66 42.42
Calgary $436,500 -0.25 0.65 1.98 0.80 -3.55 13.50
Regina $313,000 2.04 6.23 6.89 5.65 5.80 1.36
Saskatoon $316,700 2.31 3.89 4.03 -0.25 -0.55 4.67
Guelph $411,600 -1.99 -2.42 7.76 19.50 36.35 50.27
Oakville-Milton $704,000 -0.35 -7.72 -4.00 11.44 42.36 59.00
Greater Toronto $755,400 -2.28 -7.48 3.71 14.25 47.04 64.46
Ottawa $365,200 0.37 2.27 5.39 5.87 8.63 9.66
Greater Montreal $326,400 0.06 1.26 3.56 4.65 8.90 11.71
Greater Moncton $175,600 0.27 1.50 5.51 5.07 12.85 13.45


(Use button if the table information did not load properly)

1 All figures in this release except price measures are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted. Removing normal seasonal variations enables meaningful analysis of monthly changes and fundamental trends.


PLEASE NOTE:

The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS®Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 115,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

 

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Ottawa resale market proves strong in first half of 2017

 

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 2,162 residential properties in June through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 1,985 in June 2016, an increase of 8.9 per cent. The five-year average for June sales is 1,818.

“We’re having a stellar year so far in 2017. Year-to-date sales numbers for the first half of the year are up in both the residential and condo property classes, combined coming in at a 13.5 per cent increase over the same time period in 2016,” says Ralph Shaw, President-Elect of the Ottawa Real Estate Board. “Average sale price in both the residential and condo class is up in the first half of 2017 compared to last year, although not a significant amount.”

June’s sales included 408 in the condominium property class, and 1,754 in the residential property class. “Listings and inventory levels continue to trend downwards, and REALTORS® report an increase in multiple offers on properties in some pockets around the city,” says Shaw. “While some areas within the Ottawa market are very active in sales, there are other areas of the city that remain very balanced and steady.”

“Something we hadn’t seen for years, is the recent rise in the lifestyle market in both the residential and condo property class, with 46 over $1 million units sold in June, and 171 units over $1 million sold since the beginning of the year,” says Shaw. “Both numbers are more than double the amount sold last year. It indicates that home buyers are looking beyond their basic needs to check off more boxes from their wish lists such as view, downtown location, or acreage property.”

“Since the announcement in April by the Ontario Liberal government of cooling measures in Toronto, it’s no surprise that the Ottawa market has been thriving. Not only is Ottawa an affordable place to live, it’s also very desirable,” says Shaw. “We have a great mix of city life and rural expanses. It’s no wonder MoneySense just named Ottawa as Canada’s best place to live in 2017.”

The average sale price of a residential-class property sold in June in the Ottawa area was $434,502, an increase of 8.8 per cent over June 2016. The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $289,905, an increase of 9.4 per cent over June 2016. The Board cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price and conditions will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

“The most active price point in the residential market continues to be the $300,000 to $399,999 range, accounting for 35.1 per cent of the market. Within the condo market, the most active price point was between $150,000 and $249,999, accounting for 50.8 per cent of the market,” says Shaw. “In addition to residential and condominium sales, OREB Members assisted clients with renting 1,496 properties since the beginning of the year.”

The Ottawa Real Estate Board is an industry association of over 3,000 sales representatives and brokers in the Ottawa area. Members of the Board are also members of the Canadian Real Estate Association.

http://creastats.crea.ca/otta/

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Condo sales lead the way for stellar performance in May

Condo sales lead the way for stellar performance in May

OTTAWA, June 2, 2017 - Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 2,300 residential properties in May through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 1,919 in May 2016, an increase of 19.9 per cent. The five-year average for May sales is 1,946.

“Not only was May 2017 the best May on record for unit sales, it also surpassed the record for highest unit sales in a single month ever; blowing the previous record out of the water by 315 units,” says Rick Eisert, President of the Ottawa Real Estate Board. “One of the reasons for these stellar numbers can be attributed to the condo market, which has really helped strengthen the whole market over the past several months. This is quite evident in May, where units sold increased by 44.6 per cent over May 2016.”
 
May’s sales included 444 in the condominium property class, and 1,856 in the residential property class. The condominium property class includes any property, regardless of style (i.e. detached, semi-detached, apartment, townhouse, etc.), which is registered as a condominium, as well as properties which are co-operatives, life leases, and timeshares. The residential property class includes all other residential properties.
 
“Sales activity continued to trend towards a sellers’ market, as evidenced by lower than normal inventory levels and listing averages for May, more multiple offer situations, and fewer days on market, but prices still remain relatively steady,” explains Eisert. “If we were in a true sellers’ market, we would expect to see a much higher spike in prices.”
 
The average sale price of a residential-class property sold in May in the Ottawa area was $436,625, an increase of 7.4 per cent over May 2016. The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $270,993, an increase of 2.3 per cent over May 2016. The Board cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price and conditions will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.
 
“Higher-end residential units in the $750,000+ range continue to outperform sales from last year, especially in the $1 million+ range, where unit sales have almost doubled those in May 2016,” says Eisert. “We are not seeing quite the same trend for condo units though, where there are increases in units sold in almost all price ranges.”
 
“The two most active price points in the residential market continue to be the $300,000 to $399,999 followed by the $400,000 to $499,999 range, combined accounting for 56.4 per cent of the market. Within the condo market, the most active price point was between $150,000 and $249,999, accounting for 50.7 per cent of the market,” says Eisert. “In addition to residential and condominium sales, OREB Members assisted clients with renting 1,551 properties since the beginning of the year.”
 

Reference for this blog post is at The Ottawa Real Estate Board.

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Canadian home sales edge higher from February to March

Ottawa, ON, April 18, 2017 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales were up on a month-over-month basis in March 2017.

Highlights:

  • National home sales rose 1.1% from February to March.
  • Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in March was up 6.6% from a year earlier.
  • The number of newly listed homes climbed 2.5% from February to March.
  • The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was up 18.6% year-over-year (y-o-y) in March 2017.
  • The national average sale price increased by 8.2% y-o-y in March.

Home sales over Canadian MLS® Systems edged up 1.1% in March 2017, surpassing the previous monthly record set in April 2016 by one-quarter of a percent.

March sales were up from the previous month in more than half of all local markets, led by the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, London & St. Thomas and Montreal.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in March was up 6.6% year-over-year, with gains in close to 75% of all local markets. Sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) posted the biggest increase, which offset a decline in the number of homes changing hands in Greater Vancouver.

“The current strength in national home sales mainly speaks to what’s going on in and around Toronto,” said CREA President Andrew Peck. “Elsewhere, sales either remain slow or well below previous heights. All real estate is local, and REALTORS®remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to in the future.”

“The latest Canadian housing market statistics suggest that the drum-tight housing market balance in Toronto and nearby cities stands in contrast to housing market trends elsewhere in Ontario and other provinces,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Because housing market balance varies by location, federal or provincial policy measures aimed at cooling demand in Toronto risk destabilizing housing markets elsewhere.”

The number of newly listed homes rose 2.5% in March 2017, led by gains in the GTA, Calgary, Edmonton and the Lower Mainland of British Columbia.

With new listings having climbed by more than sales, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 67.4% in March compared to 68.3% in February.

A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was above the sellers’ market threshold in about 60% of all local housing markets in March, the majority of which are located in British Columbia, in and around the GTA and across southwestern Ontario.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents how long it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 4.1 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of March 2017, down from 4.2 months in February and the lowest level for this measure in almost a decade. The number of months of inventory in March 2017 stood at or below one month in the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, Oakville-Milton, Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, Brantford, Guelph, Barrie & District, parts of the Niagara Region and parts of cottage country.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 18.6% y-o-y in March 2017. Price gains accelerated for all benchmark housing categories tracked by the index.

Prices for two-storey single family homes posted the strongest year-over-year gains (+21%), followed closely by townhouse/row units (+17.9%), one-storey single family homes (16.6%) and apartment units (16.3%).

While benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in 11 of 13 housing markets tracked by the MLS® HPI, price trends continued to vary widely by location.

In the Fraser Valley and Greater Vancouver, prices have been recovering in recent months after having dipped in the second half of last year. On a year-over-year basis, home prices in the Fraser Valley and Greater Vancouver remain well above year-ago levels (+19.4% y-o-y and +12.7% y-o-y respectively).

Meanwhile, y-o-y benchmark price increases were in the 20% range in Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island. Guelph recorded a similar price gain, while Greater Toronto and Oakville-Milton saw prices rise in the 30% range in March.

By comparison, home prices eased by 1.2% y-o-y in Calgary and by 1.5% y-o-y in Saskatoon. Prices in these two markets now stand 5.4% and 5.1% below their respective peaks reached in 2015.

Home prices were up modestly from year-ago levels in Regina (+1.7%), Ottawa (+4%), Greater Montreal (+3.3% y-o-y) and Greater Moncton (+4.7%).

Year-over-year price gains were led by different benchmark housing categories in each of these markets. In Regina, apartments posted the biggest price increase, which snapped a long series of price declines for apartments that began in early 2015. In Ottawa, prices rose most for one-storey single family homes. In Montreal, two-storey single family home prices posted the biggest gain; meanwhile in Moncton, it was townhouse/row unit prices that climbed the most.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are prone to being strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in March 2017 was $548,517, up 8.2% from where it stood one year earlier.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which remain two of Canada’s tightest, most active and expensive housing markets.

Greater Vancouver’s share of national sales activity has diminished considerably over the past year, giving it less upward influence on the national average price. Even so, the average price is reduced by more than $150,000 to $389,726 if Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto sales are excluded from calculations.

– 30 –

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month. 

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types. 

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale. 

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 120,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

 

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Canadian home sales edge down from December to January

Ottawa, ON, February 15, 2017 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales were down slightly in January 2017 on a month-over-month basis.

Highlights:

  • National home sales declined 1.3% from December 2016 to January 2017.
  • Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in January was up 1.9% from a year earlier.
  • The number of newly listed homes dropped 6.7% from December 2016 to January 2017.
  • The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) in January was up 15.0% year-over-year (y-o-y).
  • The national average sale price was little changed (+0.2%) y-o-y in January.

Home sales over Canadian MLS® Sys tems edged down by 1.3% month-over-month in January 2017, putting them at the second lowest monthly level since the fall of 2015 and only slightly above levels recorded last November when recently tightened mortgage regulations came into effect.

Sales activity was down from the previous month in about half of all local markets, led by three of Canada’s largest urban centres: the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Greater Vancouver and Montreal.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity was up 1.9% compared to the same month last year. While sales were up from year-ago levels in about two-thirds of all local housing markets including in the GTA, Calgary, Edmonton, London and St Thomas, and Montreal, they were down significantly in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia.

“Canadian homebuyers face some challenges this year, including new mortgage rules that make it harder to qualify for a mortgage and regulatory changes that will push up mortgage financing costs,” said CREA President Cliff Iverson. “It will take some time to gauge the extent to which these challenges will weigh on home buyers in different housing markets across Canada. All real estate is local, and REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to in the future.”

“The shortage of homes available for sale has become more severe in some cities, particularly in and around Toronto and in parts of BC,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Unless sales activity drops dramatically, the outlook for home prices remains strong in places that face a continuing supply shortage.”

The number of newly listed homes dropped 6.7% in January 2017, the second consecutive monthly decline. New listings were down in about two-thirds of all local markets, led by the GTA and environs across Vancouver Island.

With the monthly decline in new listings surpassing the decline in sales, the national sales-to-new listings ratio jumped to 67.7% in January compared to 64.0% in December and 60.2% in November.

A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was above 60% in about half of all local housing markets in January, the vast majority of which are located in British Columbia, in and around the GTA and across southwestern Ontario. A monthly decline in newly listed homes further tightened housing markets that were already in sellers’ market territory.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents how long it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 4.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of January 2017 – unchanged from December 2016 and a six-year low for the measure.

The imbalance between limited housing supply and robust demand in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe region is without precedent (the region includes the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, Oakville-Milton, Guelph, Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, Brantford, the Niagara Region, Barrie and nearby cottage country). The number of months of inventory in January 2017 stood at or below one month in the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, Oakville-Milton, Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, Brantford and Guelph.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) now includes Oakville-Milton and Guelph, and has been historically revised to ensure that all aggregate measures remain comparable.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 15.0% y-o-y in January 2017. This was up slightly from December’s gain, reflecting an acceleration in apartment and townhouse/row unit price increases.

Prices for two-storey single family homes posted the strongest year-over-year gains (+16.8%), followed closely by townhouse/row units (+15.8%), one-storey single family homes (+14.4%) and apartment units (+13.3%).

While benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in 10 of 13 housing markets tracked by the MLS® HPI, price trends continued to vary widely by location.

In the Fraser Valley and Greater Vancouver, prices have receded from their peaks posted in August 2016. That said, home prices in these regions nonetheless remain well above year-ago levels (+24.9% and +15.6% respectively).

Meanwhile, benchmark prices continue to climb in Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island together with Greater Toronto, Oakville-Milton and Guelph. Year-over-year price gains in these five markets ranged from about 18% to 26% in January.

By comparison, home prices were down 2.9% y-o-y in Calgary and by 1.0% y-o-y in Saskatoon. Prices in these two markets now stand 5.9% and 4.3% below their respective peaks reached in 2015.

Home prices were up modestly from year-ago levels in Regina (+3.8%), Ottawa (+3.7%) and Greater Montreal (+3.1%). In Greater Moncton, home prices for the market overall held steady (-0.2%), reflecting an increase in townhouse row units prices (5.8%) that was offset by a decline in prices for one-storey single family homes (-1.0%).

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are prone to being strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in January 2017 was $470,253, almost unchanged (+0.2%) from where it stood one year earlier.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which remain two of Canada’s tightest, most active and expensive housing markets.

That said, Greater Vancouver’s share of national sales activity has diminished considerably over the past year, giving it less upward influence on the national average price. The average price is reduced by almost $120,000 to $351,998 if Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto sales are excluded from calculations.

– 30 –

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 120,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

 

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Canadian home sales cool in November

Canadian home sales cool in November

 Ottawa, ON, December 15, 2016 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales were down on a month-over-month basis in November 2016.

Highlights:

  • National home sales fell 5.3% from October to November.
  • Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity remained 1.6% above levels in November 2015.
  • The number of newly listed homes edged down 0.4% from October to November.
  • The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) in November was up 14.4% year-over-year (y-o-y).
  • The national average sale price climbed 7.3% y-o-y in November.

natl_chart_of_interest01_lo-res_enThe number of homes trading hands via Canadian MLS® Systems declined 5.3 percent month-over-month in November 2016. This represents the largest monthly decline in activity since August 2012. As a result, the number of homes changing hands now stands at the lowest level since September 2015.

Activity was down on a month-over-month basis in about two-thirds of all local markets, including Canada’s most active markets.

“November was the first full month in which the expanded stress-test was in effect for home buyers with less than a twenty percent down payment,” said CREA President Cliff Iverson. “The government’s newly tightened mortgage regulations have dampened a wide swath of housing markets, including places not targeted directly by the government’s latest regulatory measures. The extent to which they pushed first-time home buyers to the sidelines varies among housing markets. All real estate is local, and REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to in the future.”

“Canadian housing market results for November suggest that Canada’s housing sector is unlikely to be as strong a source for economic growth as compared to before mortgage regulations were recently tightened,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Housing activity generates a lot of spin-off spending, which makes its weakened prospects an additional source of uncertainty as regards the outlooks for Canadian economic and job growth.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity held 1.6 percent above where it stood in November 2015 – the smallest year-over-year increase since October 2015. Y-o-y activity gains in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and environs were offset by declines in B.C.’s Lower Mainland.

The number of newly listed homes edged down 0.4 percent in November 2016 compared to October. New listings were up from the previous month in close to half of all local markets, led by the GTA but offset by declines in B.C.’s Lower Mainland.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio declined to 59.8 percent in November compared to 62.9 percent in October.

A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 percent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was above 60 percent in almost half of all local housing markets in November, the vast majority of which are located in British Columbia, in and around the Greater Toronto Area and across Southwestern Ontario. In Greater Vancouver, the ratio has moved out of sellers’ market territory and into the mid-50 percent range.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 4.8 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of November 2016 – up from a six-year low of 4.5 months in October, and the highest level since March 2016.

The tight balance between housing supply and demand in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe region is without precedent (including the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, Oakville-Milton, Guelph, Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, Brantford, the Niagara Region, Barrie and nearby cottage country). In November, the number of months of inventory ranged between one and two months in many of these housing markets, and stood below one month in the Durham Region, Orangeville, Oakville-Milton, Kitchener-Waterloo and Cambridge.

natl_chart_of_interest03_lo-res_enThe Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 14.4% y-o-y in November 2016. This is down from 14.6% in October and reflects a slowdown in single family home price appreciation.

Benchmark prices for two-storey single family homes and townhouse/row units posted the biggest y-o-y gains in November 2016 (16.3% and 16.0% respectively). Price increases were not far behind for one-storey single family homes (13.7%) and apartment units (11.5%).

While home prices rose on a y-o-y basis in 9 of the 11 markets tracked by the MLS® HPI, gains continued to vary widely.

The Fraser Valley (+29.7%) posted the largest y-o-y gain in November, while gains of around 20% were recorded in Greater Vancouver, Victoria and Greater Toronto (+20.5%, +20.6% & +20.3%, respectively). Vancouver Island also registered a double-digit increase in home prices (+16.8% y-o-y).

By contrast, home prices were down 4% y-o-y in Calgary, and edged lower by 1.2 percent y-o-y in Saskatoon. As a result, home prices are off their 2015 peaks in these markets by 5.5% and 3.9% respectively.

Meanwhile, home prices posted y-o-y gains in Regina (+5.4%), Ottawa (+3.4%), Greater Montreal (+3.1%) and Greater Moncton (+3.5%). (Table 1)

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are prone to being strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in November 2016 rose 7.3% y-o-y to $489,591.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which remain two of Canada’s tightest, most active and expensive housing markets.

That said, Greater Vancouver’s share of national sales activity has diminished considerably of late, giving it less upward influence on the national average price. Even so, the average price is reduced by almost $130,000 to $361,260 if Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto sales are excluded from calculations.

– 30 –

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month. 

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types. 

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale. 

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 115,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

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Canadian home sales rise in October

Ottawa, ON, November 15, 2016 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales were up on a month-over-month basis in October 2016.

Highlights:

  • National home sales rose 2.4% from September to October.
  • Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 2.0% year-over-year (y-o-y) in October 2016.
  • The number of newly listed homes edged up 1.7% from September to October.
  • The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) in October was up 14.6% y-o-y.
  • The national average sale price climbed 5.9% y-o-y.

The number of homes trading hands via Canadian MLS® Systems rose 2.4 percent month-over-month in October 2016. (Chart A)

Activity was up on a month-over-month basis about 60 percent of all local markets, led by the Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton, Hamilton-Burlington and Montreal.

“The expanded stress-test for home buyers who need mortgage default insurance took effect in the middle of October,” said CREA President Cliff Iverson. “More time will need to pass before its effect on housing markets can be gauged. The extent to which they will push first-time home buyers to the sidelines may vary among housing markets. All real estate is local, and REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to in the future.”

“First-time home buyers looking to get into the market before having to face tougher mortgage eligibility criteria had only two weeks to do so following the Finance Minister’s announcement of tighter mortgage regulations in early October,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Early evidence suggests that the influence of tighter mortgage regulations on sales activity has been mixed. The federal government will no doubt want to monitor the effect of new mortgage regulations on the many varied housing markets across Canada and on the economy, particularly given the recent rise in uncertainty about economic growth prospects following the U.S. presidential election.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity rose 2 percent y-o-y in October 2016 to set a record for the month, edging out the previous record set back in October 2009 by just 0.8 percent.

Transactions were up from year-ago levels in about 60 percent of all Canadian markets, with activity gains in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and environs offset by y-o-y declines in B.C.’s Lower Mainland.

The number of newly listed homes climbed 1.7 percent in October 2016 compared to September. Led by a marked increase in the GTA, new listings were up from the previous month in about 60 percent of all local markets.

With sales having risen by slightly more than new listings in October, the national sales-to-new listings ratio edged higher to 62.9 percent compared to 62.4 percent in September.

A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 percent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was above 60 percent in half of all local housing markets in October, the vast majority of which continue to be located in British Columbia, in and around the Greater Toronto Area and across Southwestern Ontario. The ratio has moved out of sellers’ market territory and into the mid-50 percent range in Greater Vancouver.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 4.5 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of October 2016 – the lowest level in almost 7 years.

The tight balance between housing supply and demand in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe region is without precedent (including the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, Oakville-Milton, Guelph, Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, Brantford, the Niagara Region, Barrie and nearby cottage country). In October, the number of months of inventory ranged between one and two months in many of these housing markets, and has slipped to below one month in Mississauga, the Durham Region, Orangeville, Cambridge and Guelph.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 14.6 percent y-o-y in October 2016, up from 14.4 percent in September. (Chart B)

On a y-o-y basis, price growth accelerated for two-storey single family homes and apartment units while slowing for townhouse/row units.

Benchmark prices for two-storey single family homes and townhouse/row units posted the biggest y-o-y gains in October 2016 (16.7 percent and 16.0 percent respectively). Price increases were not far behind for one-storey single family homes (14.0 percent) and apartment units (11.4 percent).

While prices in 9 of the 11 markets tracked by the MLS® HPI posted y-o-y gains in October, increases continue to vary widely among housing markets.

Greater Vancouver (+24. 8 percent) and the Fraser Valley (+32.5 percent) posted the largest y-o-y gains, although single family home prices in both of these markets are now off peak.

Double-digit y-o-y percentage price gains were also registered in Greater Toronto (+19.7 percent), Victoria (+20.1 percent) and Vancouver Island (+15.8 percent).

By contrast, prices were down 4.1 percent y-o-y in Calgary. Although home prices there have held mostly steady since May, they have been below year-ago levels since August 2015 and are down 5.1 percent from the peak reached in January 2015.

Home prices also edged lower by 1.3 percent y-o-y in Saskatoon. Home prices in Saskatoon have also held below year-ago levels since August 2015.

Meanwhile, home prices posted y-o-y gains in Regina (+4.5 percent), Ottawa (+3.0 percent), Greater Moncton (+2.8 percent) and Greater Montreal (+2.6 percent). (Table 1)

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are prone to being strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in October 2016 was up 5.9 percent y-o-y to $481,994.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which remain two of Canada’s tightest, most active and expensive housing markets.

That said, Greater Vancouver’s share of national sales activity has diminished considerably of late, resulting in it having less upward influence on the national average price. Even so, the average price is reduced by more than $120,000 to $361,012 if Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto sales are excluded from calculations.

MLS® Home Price Index Benchmark Price
Composite HPI October 2016 Percentage Change vs.
1 month ago 3 months ago 6 months ago 12 months ago 3 years ago 5 years ago
Aggregate $579,800 0.63 1.56 7.49 14.59 28.85 37.09
Lower Mainland $820,900 -0.60 -0.77 10.03 26.71 51.60 50.91
Greater Vancouver $919,300 -0.78 -1.19 8.82 24.79 52.66 51.13
Fraser Valley $636,500 -0.14 0.42 13.53 32.52 49.44 51.67
Vancouver Island $368,000 1.34 3.96 10.42 15.78 24.79 20.72
Victoria $543,500 1.13 3.30 10.12 20.12 29.63 23.53
Calgary $434,800 -0.45 -0.40 -0.65 -4.05 4.08 15.30
Regina $291,800 -1.12 -0.76 0.04 4.49 -3.74 7.84
Saskatoon $303,400 -1.09 -1.81 -0.31 -1.26 -3.07 7.31
Greater Toronto $683,000 2.01 4.14 11.12 19.68 42.91 56.94
Ottawa $341,600 0.26 0.86 2.34 3.03 3.73 6.18
Greater Montreal $310,600 -0.12 0.12 0.75 2.60 4.19 8.67
Greater Moncton $161,700 -0.44 -0.44 3.18 2.79 6.57 7.75

1 All figures in this release except price measures are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted. Removing normal seasonal variations enables meaningful analysis of monthly changes and fundamental trends.


PLEASE NOTE:

The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 115,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

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Canadian home sales edge up in September

Ottawa, ON, October 14, 2016 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales edged slightly higher in September 2016 compared to August.

Highlights:

National home sales edged up 0.8% from August to September.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in September rose 4.2% year-over-year (y-o-y).
The number of newly listed homes ticked up 0.5% from August to September.
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) in September was up 14.4% y-o-y.
The national average sale price climbed 9.5% y-o-y.

The number of homes trading hands natl_chart_of_interest01_lo-res_envia Canadian MLS® Systems rose 0.8 percent month-over-month in September 2016. Having eased in each of the previous four months, national home sales are 5.6 percent below the record set in April 2016.

The number of markets was evenly split between those where activity rose on a month-over-month basis and those where it declined. Continuing recent trends, sales climbed further in and around the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and fell further in and around the Lower Mainland of British Columbia.

As previously reported, Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley home sales had retreated sharply for five months straight before the new foreign buyers’ tax in Metro Vancouver was announced in August. Activity has returned to more normal levels after having peaked at the start of this year. Indeed, most of the decline since the April peak in national sales reflects the rapid drop in activity in and around B.C.’s Lower Mainland.

“The Finance Minister’s recent changes to regulations affecting mortgage lending has added to housing market uncertainty among buyers and sellers,” said CREA President Cliff Iverson. “For first-time home buyers, the stress test for those who need mortgage default insurance will cause them to rethink how much home they can afford to buy.”

“First-time home buyers, particularly in housing markets with a lack of affordable inventory of single family homes, may be priced out of the market by the new regulations that take effect on October 17th,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “First-time home buyers support a cascade of other homes changing hands, making them the linchpin of the housing market. The federal government will no doubt want to monitor the effect of new regulations on the many varied housing markets across Canada and on the economy, particularly given the uncertain outlook for other private sector engines of economic growth.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity was up 4.2 percent y-o-y in September 2016. Transactions were up from year-ago levels in almost two-thirds of all Canadian markets. Led by the GTA and environs, the increase was held in check by the drop in activity in B.C.’s Lower Mainland.

The number of newly listed homes inched up by 0.5 percent in September 2016 compared to August. As with sales activity, the number of markets where new listings were up on a month-over-month basis and those where they fell was evenly split. With inventory in acutely short supply, the rise in new listings supported higher sales activity in the GTA and the national total.

With sales and new listings having risen by similar magnitudes, the national sales-to-new listings ratio (62.1 percent) was little changed from August (61.9 percent) and remains well off the peak reached in May (65.3 percent).

A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 percent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was above 60 percent in almost half of all local housing markets in September, virtually all of which continue to be located in British Columbia, in and around the Greater Toronto Area and across Southwestern Ontario. However, the ratio has moved out of sellers’ market territory and into the mid-50 percent range in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 4.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of September 2016. The measure has remained virtually unchanged since April, with fewer sales in the Lower Mainland counterbalanced by a shrinking supply of listings in and around the GTA.

The tight balance between housing supply and demand in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe region is without precedent (including the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, Oakville-Milton, Guelph, Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, Brantford, the Niagara Region, Barrie and nearby cottage country). The number of months of inventory ranges between one and two months in Greater Golden Horseshoe housing markets and is less than one month inside the GTA.

natl_chart_of_interest03_lo-res_enThe Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 14.4 percent y-o-y in September 2016. Down from 14.7 percent in August this was the first deceleration since March 2015.

On a y-o-y basis, price growth throttled back for one-storey single family homes and apartment units and held steady for two-storey single family homes and townhouse/row units.

Townhouse/row unit and two-storey single family home posted the biggest y-o-y increases in September 2016 (16.4 percent and 16.3 percent respectively). Price increases were close behind for one-storey single family homes (14.0 percent) and apartment units (11.1 percent).

While prices in 9 of the 11 markets tracked by the MLS® HPI posted y-o-y gains in September, increases continue to vary widely among housing markets.

Greater Vancouver (+28. 2 percent) and the Fraser Valley (+35.0 percent) posted the largest y-o-y gains by a wide margin. However, single family home prices in both of these markets dropped from the month before, marking the first significant decline since late 2012.

Double-digit y-o-y percentage price gains were also registered in Greater Toronto (+18.0 percent), Victoria (+19.4 percent) and Vancouver Island (+13.9 percent).

By contrast, prices were down -4.1 percent y-o-y in Calgary. Although home prices there have held steady since May, they have remained below year-ago levels since August 2015 and are down 4.6 percent from the peak reached in January 2015.

Home prices also edged lower by 1.2 percent y-o-y in Saskatoon. Home prices in Saskatoon have also held below year-ago levels since August 2015.

Meanwhile, home prices posted additional y-o-y gains in Regina (+4.9 percent), Greater Moncton (+4.2 percent), Ottawa (+2.7 percent) and Greater Montreal (+2.7 percent).

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are prone to being strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in September 2016 was up 9.5 percent y-o-y to $474,590.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which remain two of Canada’s tightest, most active and expensive housing markets.

That said, Greater Vancouver’s share of national sales activity has diminished considerably of late, resulting in it having less upward influence on the national average price. Even so, the average price is reduced by more than $100,000 to $358,884 if Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto sales are excluded from calculations.

– 30 –

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 115,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/statistics.

 

 

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Canadian home sales post third consecutive decline in July

Canadian home sales post third consecutive decline in July

Ottawa, ON, August 15, 2016 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales declined for a third consecutive month in July 2016.

Highlights:

  • National home sales fell 1.3% from June to July.
  • Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity came in 2.9% below July 2015.
  • The number of newly listed homes rose 1.2% from June to July.
  • The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 14.3% year-over-year in July.
  • The national average sale price climbed 9.9% in July from one year ago; net of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Greater Vancouver, it advanced 7% year-over-year.

natl_chart_of_interest01_lo-res_enThe number of homes trading hands via Canadian MLS® Systems fell by 1.3 percent month-over-month in July 2016. With similar monthly declines having been posted in May and June, national sales activity in July came in 3.9 percent below the record set in April 2016.

Sales activity was down from the previous month in slightly more than half of all markets in July, led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. Transactions in these two markets peaked in February of this year, and have since then dropped by 21.5 and 28.8 percent respectively. Accordingly, much of the national sales decline in recent months reflects slowing activity in B.C.’s Lower Mainland.

“National sales and price trends continue to be heavily influenced by a handful of places in Ontario and British Columbia and mask significant variations in local housing market trends and conditions across Canada,” said CREA President Cliff Iverson. “All real estate is local, and REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales, listing and price trends where you live or might like to in the future.”

“Home sales continued to trend lower while price gains further accelerated in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “This suggests that sales are being reined in by a lack of inventory and a further deterioration in affordability. The new 15 per cent property transfer tax on Metro Vancouver home purchases by foreign buyers took effect on August 2nd, so it will take some time before the effect of the new tax on sales and prices can be observed. That said, the new tax will do little in the short term to increase the supply of homes.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity was down 2.9 percent year-over-year (y-o-y) in July 2016, marking the first y-o-y decline since January 2015 and the largest since April 2013. In line with softening activity in the Lower Mainland, y-o-y increases have been losing momentum since February 2016. Sales were down from levels one year earlier in about 60 percent of all Canadian markets, led by Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Calgary and Edmonton.

The number of newly listed homes rose by 1.2 percent in July 2016 compared to June. While new supply climbed in fewer than half of all local markets, increases in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, Greater Toronto, Calgary and Edmonton outweighed declines in smaller markets.

With sales down and new listings up, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 61.6 percent in July 2016 – its second monthly decline following its peak of 65.3 percent in May. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 percent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was above 60 percent in about half of all local housing markets in July, virtually all of which continue to be located in British Columbia, in and around the Greater Toronto Area and across Southwestern Ontario.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 4.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of July 2016. This is unchanged from readings in each of the previous two months and continues to indicate a tight balance between supply and demand for homes.

The number of months of inventory has trended lower since early 2015, reflecting increasingly tighter housing markets in B.C. and Ontario. It currently sits near or below two months in a number of local markets in British Columbia and in and around the GTA. Indeed, some regions in the GTA are down to just a couple of weeks of inventory.

natl_chart_of_interest03_lo-res_enThe Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 14.3 percent y-o-y in July 2016, the biggest gain since November 2006.

For the sixth consecutive month, y-o-y price growth accelerated for all Benchmark property types tracked by the index.

Two-storey single family home prices continued to post the biggest y-o-y gain (+15.9 percent), followed by townhouse/row units (+15.3 percent), one-storey single family homes (+14.3 percent), and apartment units (+11.1 percent).

While prices in 9 of the 11 markets tracked by the MLS® HPI posted y-o-y gains in July, increases continue to vary widely among housing markets.

Greater Vancouver (+32.6 percent) and the Fraser Valley (+37.6 percent) posted the largest y-o-y gains by a wide margin, followed by Greater Toronto (+16.7 percent), Victoria (+17.5 percent) and Vancouver Island (+11.6 percent). By contrast, prices were down -4.2 percent and -1.5 percent y-o-y in Calgary and Saskatoon respectively.

Home prices rose modestly in Regina (+2.7 percent y-o-y), Greater Montreal (+1.8 percent y-o-y) and Ottawa (+1.1 percent y-o-y). Greater Moncton recorded its largest y-o-y home price increase (+8.4 percent) among an unbroken string of gains posted every month over the past year.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides a the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are prone to being distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which remain two of Canada’s tightest, most active and expensive housing markets. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in July 2016 was $480,743, up 9.9 percent y-o-y.

If these two housing markets are excluded from calculations, the average price is a more modest $365,033 and the gain is trimmed to 7.0 percent y-o-y.

Even then, this reflects a tug of war between strong average price gains in housing markets around the GTA and in British Columbia versus flat or declining average prices elsewhere in Canada. The average price for Canada net of sales in British Columbia and Ontario in July 2016 edged down 0.2 percent y-o-y to $310,905. The year-over-year percentage change in the national average price excluding B.C. and Ontario sales has now been in negative territory for 20 consecutive months.

– 30 –

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 115,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/statistics.

Continue reading

Canadian home sales decline further in June

Canadian home sales decline further in June

Ottawa, ON, July 15, 2016 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales declined further in June 2016.

Highlights:

  • National home sales fell 0.9% from May to June.
  • Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity came in 5.2% above June 2015.
  • The number of newly listed homes rose 2.2% from May to June.
  • The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 13.6% year-over-year in June.
  • The national average sale price climbed 11.2% in June from one year ago; net of Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver, it advanced 8.4% year-over-year.

natl_chart_of_interest01_lo-res_enThe number of homes trading hands via Canadian MLS® Systems fell by 0.9 percent month-over-month in June 2016. Monthly declines in each of the past two months have left sales activity 2.6 percent below the record set in April 2016.

Sales activity was down from the previous month in about half of all markets in June, with declines in Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley and Greater Toronto having eclipsed gains in comparatively less active housing markets.

“While national sales activity remains strong, there are still significant differences in housing market trends across Canada,” said CREA President Cliff Iverson. “While home sales activity and price growth are running strong in B.C. and Ontario, they remain subdued in other markets where homebuyers are cautious and uncertain about the outlook for their local economy,” he added. “All real estate is local, and REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to in the future.”

“June sales extended trends observed the previous month,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “As was the case in May, the monthly decline in national sales activity was led by the Lower Mainland of British Columbia and markets in or around the GTA. In keeping with the law of supply and demand, exceptionally low inventory combined with high demand continues to translate into strong price growth in these housing markets, where year-over-year price gains have been running in double-digit territory since late last year.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity was up 5.2 percent year-over-year (y-o-y) in June 2016. Year-over-year increases have been steadily losing momentum since February 2016.

The number of newly listed homes rose by 2.2 percent in June 2016 compared to May. New supply climbed among a broad majority of all local markets, led by Greater Toronto, Oakville-Milton, Montreal, Quebec City, and B.C.’s Fraser Valley. The return of activity in Fort McMurray following its evacuation in May also contributed to the national increase in new listings.

With sales down and new listings up, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 63.3 percent in June 2016, compared to 65.3 percent in May. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 percent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was above 60 percent in about half of all local housing markets in June, virtually all of which are located in British Columbia, in and around Toronto and across Southwestern Ontario.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 4.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of June 2016, which is unchanged from May’s reading and the lowest level in more than six years. The number of months of inventory has been trending lower since early 2015, reflecting increasingly tighter housing markets in B.C. and Ontario. It currently sits near or below two months in a number of local markets in British Columbia, the GTA and environs and Southwestern Ontario.

natl_chart_of_interest03_lo-res_enThe Aggregate Composite MLS® Benchmark price rose by 13.6 percent y-o-y to $564,700 in June 2016, the biggest gain since December 2006.

For the fifth consecutive month, y-o-y price growth accelerated for all Benchmark property types tracked by the index.

Two-storey single family home prices continued to post the biggest y-o-y gain (+15.5 percent), followed by one-storey single family homes (+14.0 percent), townhouse/row units (+13.6 percent), and apartment units (+9.8 percent).

While prices in 9 of the 11 markets tracked by the MLS® HPI posted y-o-y gains in June, price growth continues to vary widely among housing markets.

Greater Vancouver (+32.1 percent) and the Fraser Valley (+35.5 percent) posted the largest y-o-y gains, followed by Greater Toronto (+16.0 percent), Victoria (+15.7 percent), and Vancouver Island (+10.6 percent). By contrast, prices were down -4.1 percent and -1.4 percent y-o-y in Calgary and Saskatoon, respectively.

Home prices gained further traction in Regina (+3.6 percent y-o-y), Greater Montreal (+1.9 percent y-o-y), and Ottawa (+1.0 percent y-o-y). Home prices in Greater Moncton recorded their eleventh consecutive year-over-year gain, rising 7.9 percent.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are prone to being distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which remain two of Canada’s tightest, most active and expensive housing markets. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in June 2016 was $503,301, up 11.2 percent y-o-y.

If these two housing markets are excluded from calculations, the average price is a more modest $374,760 and the gain is trimmed to 8.4 percent y-o-y.

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PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 115,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/statistics.

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